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What Would You Rather Do
By David Jenyns, Thu Dec 8th
You can draw some useful parallels between running a businessand Forex trading. For instance, most successful businesses keepstatistics on everything from their conversion rate, to theiraverage dollar sale, to the number of people that come in thedoor. Businesses do this to keep on top of how they are doing ona day-to-day basis and businesses must first take score beforebegining to improve on that score. Using a Forex back testingplan in your trading works exactly the same way. Now that you`re looking at Forex trading as a business, you needto learn some valuable statistics about your system so you canimprove it`s performance. You would use a Forex back testingmethod. You can`t improve your system unless you have somethingto measure it against. How could you expect to improve yourtrading unless you knew what it was you were looking to improve?You can discover these measurements and other valuableinformation about your trading system, by using a Forex backtesting plan. There are two ways that you can use a Forex back testing plan toback test a system. You can do it manually, which can be adrawn-out and labour-intensive process, or you can do it withthe aid of some software packages. Unfortunately, I recommendyou do it by hand when you first start out. You`ll get a muchbetter feel for your system, and you`ll understand exactly howusing a Forex back testing plan works in all its intricacies.Once you have the Forex back testing plan and the in-depthknowledge, you could look at finding a software package thatdoes it for you.
There are a few major statistics on your Forex back testing planthat you need that you will uncover through back testing. Thefirst statistic you need to become familiar with is the Rmultiple principal. R stands for risk, the risk you take on anytrade when you enter the market. The R multiple of a trade isthe ratio of the profit or loss compared to the amount of moneyrisked to make the profit or loss. Therefore, if you risk $200 dollars in your initial purchase,and you make a profit of $1,000, you have made five times theamount you risked in the trade. You have an R multiple of five.This statistic gives you a good idea of the relative size ofyour profits to your losses. You can compare the average size ofyour winning trades with the average size of your losing trades. The next statistic you`ll find useful is your win to loss ratio.This is how many times you get a winning trade in proportion tohow many times you get a losing trade. For example, if you hadten trades, four of those trades were winners, and six werelosers, your win to loss ratio is simply four to six. This isyour hit rate; you`ll get 40% of your trades correct. With these two simple statistics, you can calculate the averagesize of your profits and of your losses, multiply these figureswith your win to loss ratio, and calculate on average how muchmoney you make with every dollar
USD/CAD Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
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<a href="http://www.fxempire.com/technical/technical-analysis-reports/usdcad-forecast-february-6-2012-technical-analysis/" style="font-size:1.2em">USD/CAD Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">FX Empire</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">1 hour ago </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The USD/CAD pair fell on Friday as the better than expected Non-Farm Payroll numbers had the market comfortable with taking risk. The Canadian dollar rose to the point that we have cleared the parity support area, but are currently sitting just above ...</div>
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Canadian dollar exchange rates (CAD) are a big winner following strong Non <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/canadian-dollar-exchange-rate-non-farm-03021348.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian dollar exchange rates (CAD) are a big winner following strong Non <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 3, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Canadian dollar exchange rate: Global markets have been caught by surprise following the release of strong US Non-Farm Payroll data.</div>
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Forex: USD/CAD ? The Loonie weakens after disappointing jobs data
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<a href="http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-02/forex-usdcad-the-loonie-weakens-after-disappointing-jobs-data.aspx?storyid=118436" style="font-size:1.2em">Forex: USD/CAD ? The Loonie weakens after disappointing jobs data</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">NASDAQ</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 3, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Canadian Dollar weakened across the board, falling to a 2-day low versus the Greenback after a report showed Canadian employment grew by a mere 2300 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose.</div>
<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/291952/20120202/preview-canada-employment-change-will-usd-cad.htm">Preview: Canada Employment Change ? Will USD/CAD Hold Below Parity?</a> - <span style="color:#888888">International Business Times</span><br>
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2012 Forecasts: Canadian Dollar To Be Support By QE3 In 2H12
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<a href="http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/special-reports/2012-forecasts:--canadian-dollar-to-be-support-by-qe3-in-2h12-20120203158825/" style="font-size:1.2em">2012 Forecasts: Canadian Dollar To Be Support By QE3 In 2H12</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Action Forex</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 3, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Canada will by no means escape from the recent global economic turmoil. As an economy heavily reliant on exports, the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the stringent fiscal consolidation to be adopted by the US are expected to hurt Canadian ...</div>
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Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-03)
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<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/292363/20120203/canadian-dollar-cad-technical-major-currencies-2012-02-03.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-03)</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">International Business Times</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 3, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pair has been trading within a narrow range above the 200-days SMA; the pair is having difficulties breaching this support area around the average as see on chart, while price is clearly oversold as seen on Stochastic.</div>
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Canadian dollar exchange rate: CAD finds risk environment unconstructive <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/canadian-dollar-exchange-rate-02021342.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian dollar exchange rate: CAD finds risk environment unconstructive <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 2, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The CAD was not a participant in the overnight push up in risk currencies, with USD/CAD remaining well-entrenched in familiar ranges.</div>
<a href="http://www.forexpros.com/news/forex-news/forex---usd-cad-up-on-jobs-data-229907">Forex - USD/CAD up on jobs data</a> - <span style="color:#888888">Forex Pros</span><br>
<a href="http://www.actionforex.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=158866:mixed-reactions-in-the-us-dollar-to-the-non-farm-payroll&catid=191:daily-forex-technicals">Mixed Reactions in the US Dollar to the Non-Farm Payroll</a> - <span style="color:#888888">Action Forex</span><br>
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Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-02)
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<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/291619/20120202/canadian-dollar-cad-technical-major-currencies-2012-02-02.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-02)</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">International Business Times</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 2, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pivotal support around 0.9965 is still providing the pair with a good support as seen on the provided four-hour chart. The struggle around the middle line of the descending channel that dominated the movements from 1.0285 zones continues fixing RSI ...</div>
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Canadian dollar exchange rate: CAD is cross currency under-performer <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/canadian-dollar-vs-australian-dollar-01021335.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian dollar exchange rate: CAD is cross currency under-performer <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 1, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pound Canadian dollar exchange rate is 0.02% higher at 1.5810, the euro Canadian dollar exchange rate is 0.22% higher at 1.3148, the US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate is 0.5% lower with 1 USD = 0.9971 CAD.</div>
<a href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/11394595/1/usd-cad-susceptible-to-weakness.html">USD-CAD: Susceptible to Weakness</a> - <span style="color:#888888">TheStreet.com</span><br>
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Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-01)
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<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/290835/20120201/canadian-dollar-cad-technical-major-currencies-2012-02-01.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-01)</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">International Business Times</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 1, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pair failed to hold below parity yesterday, where it found support near the 200-days SMA to rebound again attempting to retest the resistance area among 1.0050-1.0075, a bullish divergence is seen on Stochastic.</div>
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Pound to Canadian Dollar Forecast ? The GBP CAD rate has recovered from the 4 <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.torfx.com/blog/the-gbp-cad-rate-has-recovered-from-the-4-month-low-of-1-5545/11482/" style="font-size:1.2em">Pound to Canadian Dollar Forecast ? The GBP CAD rate has recovered from the 4 <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">TorFX Foreign Currency Exchange (blog)</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 31, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The Canadian Dollar is looking resilient. Even last Friday's weaker than anticipated growth data for Canada's major trading partner, the US, failed to cause the CAD to weaken.</div>
<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/canadian-dollar-us-dollar-par-30011323.html">Canadian dollar exchange rate: CAD USD finds solid support at 'par' - risk-off <b>...</b></a> - <span style="color:#888888">Euro Exchange Rate News</span><br>
<a href="http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-01/forex-cad-appears-vulnerable-to-a-near-term-set-back-against-usd-bbh.aspx?storyid=117411">Forex: CAD appears vulnerable to a near term set back against USD - BBH</a> - <span style="color:#888888">NASDAQ</span><br>
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you risk. For those of you who think this sounds like a too much work,particularly using a Forex back testing plan that you need to doto uncover these statistics, consider this scenario: Imagineyourself trading a system that you knew had a win to loss ratioof 60/40. You made profit on every six trades and lost one outof every four. How do you think you would feel, where would yourconfidence level be, after you traded the system for a littlewhile and you received a string of 11 losses in a row? Now, you know that this system has a win to loss ratio of six tofour. Would you have the confidence to open another trade ifyour system brought up another buy signal after getting 11trades wrong? Unless you use Forex back testing plan to back tested yoursystem, I doubt that your confidence level will remain high.That trading system may be a fantastic profitable system.However, since you didn`t use your Forex back testing plan toback test it, you don`t know that historically this systemreceived up to 13 losses in a row, but was still profitable. Here`s another point you may not have picked up unless you usedyour Forex back testing plan. Once you`ve set your moneymanagement rules and you begin to trade, you will likelyexperience a string of losses. Countless times, I`ve had clientswho get disheartened by this fact because they don`t understandthe nature of setting good management. If you`re adhering to therules of cutting your losses short and letting your profits run,because you`re cutting your losses short, those trades are goingto last for a shorter amount of time. This means once you begin trading the odds of getting lossesearly in the game are much higher than getting a winning trade.This is particularly true when you consider that many successfultrading systems run on a 40/60 win to loss ratio. However, youwill never know the intricacies of your system unless you use aForex back testing plan and back test it. Using a Forex back testing plan, will help you to understandwhat works and what doesn`t. It will give you the statistics togauge the effectiveness of your trades. It fills in yourscorecard, and allows you to make improvements. But, youshouldn`t simply believe everything I`ve told you. Instead, youneed to prove it to yourself by using some Forex back testingplans and back test your system. Discover BIG profits from the market by downloading your FREEcopy of David's new Ultimate Forex Trading Systems course. http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/forex.htm About the author:READ my articles; you'll FIND the most powerful insider tradingplans & tips ever put together. Searching for these on your own,is a needle in a haystack (hard to find). I trade everyday & myprogressive efforts found the perfect trading card, a set system& plans that really work. These online trading systems areunbelievably powerful, lucrative, reliable, yet simple to use.Until recently, I've kept this formula to myself. NOW, I revealall.
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Forex Trading and Commodities ? Gold and Silver Prices Advance while USD was <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=20120202_forex_signals_futures_gold_silver.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Forex Trading and Commodities ? Gold and Silver Prices Advance while USD was <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Best Syndication</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 3, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">(Best Syndication News) Gold prices jumped again today as traders took advantage of the long-term policy signals from the Federal Reserve (see forex and futures charts below).</div>
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British Pound Sterling: Currency in 10-week high vs USD while falls vs EUR <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/british-pound-high-vs-us-dollar-01021330.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Sterling: Currency in 10-week high vs USD while falls vs EUR <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 1, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Also boosting the pound sterling is news that UK manufacturing kicked back into life in January. British Pound Sterling (GBP) in US Dollar (USD): GBPUSD is unchanged at 1.5757.</div>
<a href="http://www.economy-news.co.uk/british-pound-sterling/1093-british-pound-gbp-up-against-us-dollar-usd-456456456">British Pound Sterling: Currency faces 'another slug of QE' of 75bn GBP should <b>...</b></a> - <span style="color:#888888">Economy News</span><br>
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Gold Prices Climb as Silver Slips? USD Higher vs EUR but Lower vs JPY ? Brent <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=20120131_forex_trading_usd_eur_jpy_gold_silver_prices.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Gold Prices Climb as Silver Slips? USD Higher vs EUR but Lower vs JPY ? Brent <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Best Syndication</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 1, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">(Best Syndication News) Gold and silver prices moved in opposite directions Tuesday as traders looked for safe-havens (see forex and futures charts below).</div>
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Gold Prices Advance while Silver Slips ? USD down vs EUR and JPY ? WTI and <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=20120130_forex_signals_gold_silver_jpy_eur_usd.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Gold Prices Advance while Silver Slips ? USD down vs EUR and JPY ? WTI and <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Best Syndication</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 31, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">(Best Syndication News) The dollar fell broadly Monday while optimism in Greece turned to frustration (see forex and futures charts below).</div>
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Gold and Silver Prices Advanced while Crude Oil Falls ? USD Falls vs EUR and <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=201201229_forex_signals_usd_jpy_eur_gold_silver.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Gold and Silver Prices Advanced while Crude Oil Falls ? USD Falls vs EUR and <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Best Syndication</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 30, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">(Best Syndication News) Gold and silver prices were higher last week while light sweet crude oil and the dollar declined in value (see the futures and forex charts below).</div>
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British Pound Sterling: Currency to fall further against US Dollar says <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-forecast-27011314.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Sterling: Currency to fall further against US Dollar says <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 27, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Once the euphoria is over we should also see the euro dollar exchange rate retreating once more. British Pound Sterling (GBP) in Euro (EUR): GBPEUR is 0.13% lower at 1.1958.</div>
<a href="http://www.economy-news.co.uk/british-pound-sterling/1072-british-pound-and-quantitative-easing-forecasts-3435435435">British Pound Sterling: Analysts speculate on Quantitative Easing - 25bn, 50bn <b>...</b></a> - <span style="color:#888888">Economy News</span><br>
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DFC Global Corp. Announces Record Fiscal Second Quarter Results
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<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dfc-global-corp-announces-record-fiscal-second-quarter-results-2012-01-26" style="font-size:1.2em">DFC Global Corp. Announces Record Fiscal Second Quarter Results</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">MarketWatch (press release)</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 26, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">BERWYN, Pa., Jan 26, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- DFC Global Corp. /quotes/zigman/6411860/quotes/nls/dllr DLLR +2.55% , a leading international diversified financial services company serving primarily unbanked and under-banked consumers for over 30 years, ...</div>
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Gold Prices Slide as EUR Gains vs JPY and USD ? Silver and Crude Oil Declines
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<a href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=20120124_forex_signals_commodities_gold_silver_prices.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Gold Prices Slide as EUR Gains vs JPY and USD ? Silver and Crude Oil Declines</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Best Syndication</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 25, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">(Best Syndication News) Gold prices advanced in Asia after declining in the United States (see the forex and commodity charts below).</div>
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British Pound Sterling: GBP, USD and possibly EUR, face up to the prospects of <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/deflation-and-exchange-rates-24011298.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Sterling: GBP, USD and possibly EUR, face up to the prospects of <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 24, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Foreign exchange analysts and exchange rate forecasters face the problem of understanding the impact deflationary risks will have on currency markets.</div>
<a href="http://www.economy-news.co.uk/british-pound-sterling/1068-british-pound-vs-usd-and-eur-34345454">British Pound Sterling: Currency in sharp drop vs EUR, but registers welcome <b>...</b></a> - <span style="color:#888888">Economy News</span><br>
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Currency Futures: Forex Speculators bets for US Dollar edge higher. Euro <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://countingpips.com/fx/2012/01/23/currency-futures-forex-speculators-bets-for-us-dollar-edge-higher-euro-pound-sterling-dip/" style="font-size:1.2em">Currency Futures: Forex Speculators bets for US Dollar edge higher. Euro <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">CountingPips (blog)</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 23, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">By CountingPips.com The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators continued to increase their Euro and British pound sterling short bets for ...</div>
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An abbreviation of foreign exchange
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