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What Would You Rather Do
By David Jenyns, Thu Dec 8th
You can draw some useful parallels between running a businessand Forex trading. For instance, most successful businesses keepstatistics on everything from their conversion rate, to theiraverage dollar sale, to the number of people that come in thedoor. Businesses do this to keep on top of how they are doing ona day-to-day basis and businesses must first take score beforebegining to improve on that score. Using a Forex back testingplan in your trading works exactly the same way. Now that you`re looking at Forex trading as a business, you needto learn some valuable statistics about your system so you canimprove it`s performance. You would use a Forex back testingmethod. You can`t improve your system unless you have somethingto measure it against. How could you expect to improve yourtrading unless you knew what it was you were looking to improve?You can discover these measurements and other valuableinformation about your trading system, by using a Forex backtesting plan. There are two ways that you can use a Forex back testing plan toback test a system. You can do it manually, which can be adrawn-out and labour-intensive process, or you can do it withthe aid of some software packages. Unfortunately, I recommendyou do it by hand when you first start out. You`ll get a muchbetter feel for your system, and you`ll understand exactly howusing a Forex back testing plan works in all its intricacies.Once you have the Forex back testing plan and the in-depthknowledge, you could look at finding a software package thatdoes it for you.
There are a few major statistics on your Forex back testing planthat you need that you will uncover through back testing. Thefirst statistic you need to become familiar with is the Rmultiple principal. R stands for risk, the risk you take on anytrade when you enter the market. The R multiple of a trade isthe ratio of the profit or loss compared to the amount of moneyrisked to make the profit or loss. Therefore, if you risk $200 dollars in your initial purchase,and you make a profit of $1,000, you have made five times theamount you risked in the trade. You have an R multiple of five.This statistic gives you a good idea of the relative size ofyour profits to your losses. You can compare the average size ofyour winning trades with the average size of your losing trades. The next statistic you`ll find useful is your win to loss ratio.This is how many times you get a winning trade in proportion tohow many times you get a losing trade. For example, if you hadten trades, four of those trades were winners, and six werelosers, your win to loss ratio is simply four to six. This isyour hit rate; you`ll get 40% of your trades correct. With these two simple statistics, you can calculate the averagesize of your profits and of your losses, multiply these figureswith your win to loss ratio, and calculate on average how muchmoney you make with every dollar
Forex - Canadian Dollar May Falter On Weakening Global Picture
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<a href="http://www.forextv.com/forex-news-story/forex-canadian-dollar-may-falter-on-weakening-global-picture" style="font-size:1.2em">Forex - Canadian Dollar May Falter On Weakening Global Picture</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">ForexTV.com</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 30, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">RISK DISCLAIMER: By using this web site you agree to its terms and conditions. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of ...</div>
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Forex: USD/CAD tumbles to 1.0292, 3-day low
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<a href="http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=d17c3a7a-e9b4-4400-9cae-1579864a1b97" style="font-size:1.2em">Forex: USD/CAD tumbles to 1.0292, 3-day low</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">FXstreet.com The Forex Market</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 30, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">FXstreet.com (Córdoba) ? The Canadian Dollar erased losses and turned higher against Greenback as stocks recovered in Wall Street. USD/CAD jumped to 1.0375 (daily high) after the release of US and ...</div>
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Forex spread betting: EUR CAD in focus
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<a href="http://www.spread-betting.me/forex-spread-betting-00404.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Forex spread betting: EUR CAD in focus</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Spread Betting for Me</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 30, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">If you don't have the time to concentrate on placing your trades then you are doomed. A few rules to making your way to a successful spread betting strategy. We bring those looking at forex spread ...</div>
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Daily Forex Update: EUR/CAD
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<a href="http://www.actionforex.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=119009:daily-forex-update-eurcad&catid=191:daily-forex-technicals" style="font-size:1.2em">Daily Forex Update: EUR/CAD</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Action Forex</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 30, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">After a week of hard-fought gains and higher lows in the EUR/CAD, the Euro has weakened slightly against the Canadian Dollar and corrected lower intraday. After exhausting at the resistance of the ...</div>
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Canadian Dollar Wipes Out Intraday Gain
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<a href="http://www.forex-rateit.com/forex-news/canadian-dollar-wipes-out-intraday-gain.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian Dollar Wipes Out Intraday Gain</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Forex Rate It!</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 29, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">After reaching an intraday high of 1.0302 against the US dollar, Canadian dollar moved back to the 1.0380 area. Canadian dollar lost its strength to wipe out most of its intraday gains. The pair ...</div>
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Canadian Dollar Forecast to Break Below Narrow Range
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<a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ssi/usd-cad/2010-07-29-1526-Canadian_Dollar_Forecast_to_Break.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian Dollar Forecast to Break Below Narrow Range</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Daily FX</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 29, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.57 as nearly 72% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.19 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long ...</div>
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Drop in Crude Oil Weakens CAD
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<a href="http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/daily-currencies-report/2010-07-29.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Drop in Crude Oil Weakens CAD</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">FXstreet.com The Forex Market</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 29, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">by UFXBank Research USD Dollar (USD) ? The Dollar was mixed against other major currencies in Forex Trading after worse than expected US data on durable goods orders that came at -0.6% vs. 0.6 ...</div>
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Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2010-07-30)
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<a href="http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20100730/canadian-dollar-cad-technical-major-currencies-2010-07-30.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2010-07-30)</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">IBTimes</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 29, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pair is moving within a very narrow range that has not changed the harmonic pattern expectations suggested yesterday; thus making us hold onto yesterday's expectations intact without any ...</div>
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Westpac Exits Its Bet on the Canadian Dollar Rising Against Swiss Franc
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<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-29/westpac-exits-its-bet-on-the-canadian-dollar-rising-against-swiss-franc.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Westpac Exits Its Bet on the Canadian Dollar Rising Against Swiss Franc</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Bloomberg</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 29, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">By Lukanyo Mnyanda - Thu Jul 29 13:45:29 UTC 2010 Westpac Banking Corp. exited a bet that the Canadian dollar would rally to its strongest level this month against the Swiss franc after the loonie ...</div>
<a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-29/canadian-dollar-rises-first-time-in-3-days-as-commodities-gain.html">Canadian Dollar Rises First Time in 3 Days as Commodities Gain</a> - <span style="color:#888888">BusinessWeek</span><br>
<a href="http://www.rttnews.com/Content/CanadianNews.aspx?Node=B1&Id=1377435">Canadian Dollar Advances Further Against Major Rivals</a> - <span style="color:#888888">RTT News</span><br>
<a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/cad/2010/07/30/TOF730cad.html" style="color:#009900">Daily FX</a>
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| EXCHANGE RATE
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<a href="http://www.dailynews.lk/2010/07/29/ExchangeRate.asp" style="font-size:1.2em">| EXCHANGE RATE</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Ceylon Daily News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 28, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Exchange Rates on 28.07.2010 (1) The average rates of the following currencies quoted by commercial banks in Colombo for Telegraphic Transfers (TT) at 9.30 am are as follow: Currency Buying Rate ...</div>
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you risk. For those of you who think this sounds like a too much work,particularly using a Forex back testing plan that you need to doto uncover these statistics, consider this scenario: Imagineyourself trading a system that you knew had a win to loss ratioof 60/40. You made profit on every six trades and lost one outof every four. How do you think you would feel, where would yourconfidence level be, after you traded the system for a littlewhile and you received a string of 11 losses in a row? Now, you know that this system has a win to loss ratio of six tofour. Would you have the confidence to open another trade ifyour system brought up another buy signal after getting 11trades wrong? Unless you use Forex back testing plan to back tested yoursystem, I doubt that your confidence level will remain high.That trading system may be a fantastic profitable system.However, since you didn`t use your Forex back testing plan toback test it, you don`t know that historically this systemreceived up to 13 losses in a row, but was still profitable. Here`s another point you may not have picked up unless you usedyour Forex back testing plan. Once you`ve set your moneymanagement rules and you begin to trade, you will likelyexperience a string of losses. Countless times, I`ve had clientswho get disheartened by this fact because they don`t understandthe nature of setting good management. If you`re adhering to therules of cutting your losses short and letting your profits run,because you`re cutting your losses short, those trades are goingto last for a shorter amount of time. This means once you begin trading the odds of getting lossesearly in the game are much higher than getting a winning trade.This is particularly true when you consider that many successfultrading systems run on a 40/60 win to loss ratio. However, youwill never know the intricacies of your system unless you use aForex back testing plan and back test it. Using a Forex back testing plan, will help you to understandwhat works and what doesn`t. It will give you the statistics togauge the effectiveness of your trades. It fills in yourscorecard, and allows you to make improvements. But, youshouldn`t simply believe everything I`ve told you. Instead, youneed to prove it to yourself by using some Forex back testingplans and back test your system. Discover BIG profits from the market by downloading your FREEcopy of David's new Ultimate Forex Trading Systems course. http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/forex.htm About the author:READ my articles; you'll FIND the most powerful insider tradingplans & tips ever put together. Searching for these on your own,is a needle in a haystack (hard to find). I trade everyday & myprogressive efforts found the perfect trading card, a set system& plans that really work. These online trading systems areunbelievably powerful, lucrative, reliable, yet simple to use.Until recently, I've kept this formula to myself. NOW, I revealall.
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Rank Reports Profits Down Due to Investments in Marketing
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<a href="http://www.online-casinos.com/news/news3110070.asp" style="font-size:1.2em">Rank Reports Profits Down Due to Investments in Marketing</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Online-Casinos.com</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">1 hour ago </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Despite a 10 percent rise in revenues in the first half of 2010, the UK land and gambling group Rank plc also reported this week a 23 percent decline in operating profit to GBP 2.3 million. (Great ...</div>
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British Pound Volatility Ahead on Bank of England Rate Decision
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<a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/gbp/2010/07/30/fwf_073010_gbp.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Volatility Ahead on Bank of England Rate Decision</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Daily FX</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 30, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The British Pound may turn volatile in the week ahead as the Bank of England delivers the first rate decision based on an updated inflation outlook taking into account the government's austerity ...</div>
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British Pound Spiked Up Further Against Majors
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<a href="http://www.rttnews.com/Content/CurrencyMarket.aspx?Id=1377403&SM=1" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Spiked Up Further Against Majors</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">RTT News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 30, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">(RTTNews) - The British currency spiked up further against major opponents during New York mid-day trading on Friday. The pound climbed to more than 3-week high against the euro and a multi-month ...</div>
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Euro slips back to $1.3015
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<a href="http://www.13wham.com/business/story/Euro-slips-back-to-1-3015/ueFOlVd5Y0Ck2AXqtSbhmA.cspx" style="font-size:1.2em">Euro slips back to $1.3015</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">13WHAM-TV</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 30, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">In this photo illustration a Euro note and a GBP note are displayed on April 17, 2008 in London, England. (Peter Macdiarmid, Getty Images) BERLIN (AP) ? The euro is a little lower against the ...</div>
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Great British Pound (GBP) Technical Major Currencies (2010-07-30)
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<a href="http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20100730/great-british-pound-gbp-technical-major-currencies-2010-07-30.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Great British Pound (GBP) Technical Major Currencies (2010-07-30)</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">IBTimes</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 30, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Despite of the pair moving within a bullish direction, signs of 1.5630 remaining intact are clearly appearing, where the harmonic bearish pattern has taken an AB=CD formation that has been ...</div>
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Great British Pound vs. Japanese Yen (2010-07-30)
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<a href="http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20100730/great-british-pound-vs-japanese-yen-2010-07-30.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Great British Pound vs. Japanese Yen (2010-07-30)</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">IBTimes</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 30, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pair declined yesterday, but from a pure technical harmonic point of view, we can see on the daily chart a chance for resuming a suggested CD leg for AB=CD pattern. We have two technical ...</div>
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British Pound Pressing against Resistance Line
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<a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/gbp-usd/2010-07-29-1627-British_Pound_Pressing_against_Resistance.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Pressing against Resistance Line</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Daily FX</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 29, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The GBPUSD looks vulnerable but it is difficult to short without a point of reference to place a stop. It is best to wait for a top to form and then short a bounce. The GBPUSD rally has exceeded ...</div>
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British Pound Turnaround May Be on the Horizon
<div style="padding:0px; margin-bottom:1.5em;">
<a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ssi/gbp-usd/2010-07-29-1522-British_Pound_Turnaround_May_Be.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Turnaround May Be on the Horizon</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Daily FX</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 29, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.76 as nearly 64% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.74 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail ...</div>
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Forex spread betting: GBP in focus
<div style="padding:0px; margin-bottom:1.5em;">
<a href="http://www.spread-betting.me/spread-betting-forex-00402.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Forex spread betting: GBP in focus</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Spread Betting for Me</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 29, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">A roundup of technical insight and views from the forex spread betting and forex trading industry. Those looking at spread betting the British Pound should note that the Pound has declined ...</div>
<a href="http://www.economy-news.co.uk/exchange-rates-29201007-2.html">Exchange rates: British Pound in moderate declines</a> - <span style="color:#888888">Economy News</span><br>
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Great British Pound (GBP) Technical Major Currencies (2010-07-29)
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<a href="http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20100729/great-british-pound-gbp-technical-major-currencies-2010-07-29.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Great British Pound (GBP) Technical Major Currencies (2010-07-29)</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">IBTimes</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jul 29, 2010 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pair continues the bullish trend within the bullish channel shown above, as the pair is closely nearing key resistance for the main ascending channel, accompanied by overbought signs through ...</div>
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An abbreviated name for foreign currency. See also FX
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