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Analysis Of Modern Portfolio Theory
By Verena Veneeva
The foundation of modern portfolio theory (MPT) was introduced by Harry Markowitz in 1952. Thirty-eight years later, Harry Markowitz, Merton Miller and William Sharpe were awarded Nobel Prize for what has become a broad theory for portfolio selection. Modern portfolio theory (commonly referred as mean variance analysis) established a whole new terminology which became a norm among investment managers. (Gupta, FrancisMarkowitz, Fabozzi, Frank. 2002) It has wide application in different areas of financial management such as: asset allocation through mean variance optimization, bond portfolio immunization, optimal investment trust or manager selection, international asset allocation decisions, portfolio risk management and hedging strategies.
The core concept of the Portfolio Theory is based on asset diversification and directly relies on the conventional wisdom which advice to avoid putting all eggs in one basket (Papers4you.com, 2006). In its simplest form MPT provides a framework to construct efficient portfolios by selection of the investment assets, considering risk appetite of the investor. MPT employs statistical measures such as correlation and co variation to quantify the effect of the diversification on the performance of portfolio. In it is essence MPT attempts to analyse how different investments are interrelated to each other. What happens if one investment goes broke? Does it mean that all other investments will go broke as well? How to minimize the negative effect of the downfall in one particular investment asset?
According to Markowitz (1952) investors should focus on selecting portfolios based on their overall risk-reward characteristics instead of merely compiling portfolios from securities that each individually has attractive risk-reward characteristics. In a nutshell, inventors should select portfolios not individual securities. (Risk glossary) While the theory behind MPT is quite straightforward, the implementation of efficient asset allocation can become quite complicated. The model employs a wide range of different factors such as security returns, volatilities and correlation
British Pound Sterling: Currency continues advance against EUR, safe haven <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/british-pound-eur-safe-haven-06021355.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Sterling: Currency continues advance against EUR, safe haven <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">20 hours ago </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The Pound continued its advance against the Euro this morning, but the UK currency declined for a second day versus the US Dollar, as market speculation escalates over the prospect of further quantitative easing from the Bank of England this week.</div>
<a href="http://www.economy-news.co.uk/british-pound-sterling/1097-british-pound-up-as-eco-data-provides-a-boost-43534543">British Pound Sterling | Currency News Views and Outlook</a> - <span style="color:#888888">Economy News</span><br>
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Forex Trading and Currency Exchange Rates ? USD/JPY rises as EUR/USD drops
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<a href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=20120205_forex_signals_usd_jpy_eur.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Forex Trading and Currency Exchange Rates ? USD/JPY rises as EUR/USD drops</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Best Syndication</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">23 hours ago </span>
<div style="width:80%;">(Best Syndication News) The dollar is trending higher early Monday as stock markets in Europe open lower (see forex tables below).</div>
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Currency Futures: Forex Speculators cut US Dollar bets. Aussie, Kiwi & Peso <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://countingpips.com/fx/2012/02/05/currency-futures-forex-speculators-cut-us-dollar-bets-aussie-kiwi-peso-positions-continue-rise/" style="font-size:1.2em">Currency Futures: Forex Speculators cut US Dollar bets. Aussie, Kiwi & Peso <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">CountingPips (blog)</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 5, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">By CountingPips.com The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators cut back on their US dollar long positions last week and Euro short ...</div>
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Forex Trading and Commodities ? Gold and Silver Prices Advance while USD was <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=20120202_forex_signals_futures_gold_silver.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Forex Trading and Commodities ? Gold and Silver Prices Advance while USD was <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Best Syndication</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 3, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">(Best Syndication News) Gold prices jumped again today as traders took advantage of the long-term policy signals from the Federal Reserve (see forex and futures charts below).</div>
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British Pound Sterling: Currency in 10-week high vs USD while falls vs EUR <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/british-pound-high-vs-us-dollar-01021330.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Sterling: Currency in 10-week high vs USD while falls vs EUR <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 1, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Also boosting the pound sterling is news that UK manufacturing kicked back into life in January. British Pound Sterling (GBP) in US Dollar (USD): GBPUSD is unchanged at 1.5757.</div>
<a href="http://www.economy-news.co.uk/british-pound-sterling/1093-british-pound-gbp-up-against-us-dollar-usd-456456456">British Pound Sterling: Currency faces 'another slug of QE' of 75bn GBP should <b>...</b></a> - <span style="color:#888888">Economy News</span><br>
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Gold Prices Climb as Silver Slips? USD Higher vs EUR but Lower vs JPY ? Brent <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=20120131_forex_trading_usd_eur_jpy_gold_silver_prices.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Gold Prices Climb as Silver Slips? USD Higher vs EUR but Lower vs JPY ? Brent <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Best Syndication</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 1, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">(Best Syndication News) Gold and silver prices moved in opposite directions Tuesday as traders looked for safe-havens (see forex and futures charts below).</div>
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Gold Prices Advance while Silver Slips ? USD down vs EUR and JPY ? WTI and <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=20120130_forex_signals_gold_silver_jpy_eur_usd.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Gold Prices Advance while Silver Slips ? USD down vs EUR and JPY ? WTI and <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Best Syndication</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 31, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">(Best Syndication News) The dollar fell broadly Monday while optimism in Greece turned to frustration (see forex and futures charts below).</div>
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British Pound Sterling: Currency finds GfK consumer confidence data of no use <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/british-pound-to-euro-31011325.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Sterling: Currency finds GfK consumer confidence data of no use <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 31, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">This morning the pound euro pair continues to be driven by events in the eurozone as domestic UK data fails to make an impact. British Pound Sterling (GBP) in US Dollar (USD): GBPUSD is 0.37% higher at 1.5770.</div>
<a href="http://www.economy-news.co.uk/british-pound-sterling/1078-quantitative-easing-in-february-3444354334-and-the-pound">British Pound Sterling: Currency fins support vs EUR and USD as Miles says QE <b>...</b></a> - <span style="color:#888888">Economy News</span><br>
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British Pound Sterling: Currency to fall further against US Dollar says <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-forecast-27011314.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Sterling: Currency to fall further against US Dollar says <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 27, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Once the euphoria is over we should also see the euro dollar exchange rate retreating once more. British Pound Sterling (GBP) in Euro (EUR): GBPEUR is 0.13% lower at 1.1958.</div>
<a href="http://www.economy-news.co.uk/british-pound-sterling/1072-british-pound-and-quantitative-easing-forecasts-3435435435">British Pound Sterling: Analysts speculate on Quantitative Easing - 25bn, 50bn <b>...</b></a> - <span style="color:#888888">Economy News</span><br>
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DFC Global Corp. Announces Record Fiscal Second Quarter Results
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<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dfc-global-corp-announces-record-fiscal-second-quarter-results-2012-01-26" style="font-size:1.2em">DFC Global Corp. Announces Record Fiscal Second Quarter Results</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">MarketWatch (press release)</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Jan 26, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">BERWYN, Pa., Jan 26, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- DFC Global Corp. /quotes/zigman/6411860/quotes/nls/dllr DLLR +2.55% , a leading international diversified financial services company serving primarily unbanked and under-banked consumers for over 30 years, ...</div>
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between asset classes for constructing efficient mean variance frontier. The frontier is considered to be efficient because every point on this frontier is a portfolio that gives the greatest possible return for certain risk level. (Gupta, et al, 2002) Since asset allocation decisions are so important, majority of the financial advisors determine optimal portfolios for their clients, both institutional and private.
While the implementation of the mean variance analysis requires specific skill and knowledge, the main concepts are relatively easy and can be easily presented to the wide audience (Papers4you.com, 2006). Surprisingly, MPT has wide implications in everyday life as well, since all of us are somehow involved into investment decisions. Everyone has to think about securing funds for the future education or pension, investing into property or buying a new car, and allocating some money for the coming vocation. How to justify these decisions, what would be the optimal solution? Familiarity with portfolio theory allows bringing up the ideas employed by professional investors into everyday life.
Reference
Markowitz, Harry M. (1952). Portfolio selection, Journal of Finance, 7 (1), 77-91.
Gupta, FrancisMarkowitz, Harry M.Fabozzi, Frank J. (2002) The Legacy of Modern Portfolio Theory THE JOURNAL OF INVESTING, Fall 2002
Papers For You (2006) "P/F/427. Benefits of international diversification", Available from http://www.coursework4you.co.uk/sprtfina14.htm [19/06/2006]
Papers For You (2006) "C/F/37. EQUITY PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS (International Diversification, Country versus Sector Allocation)", Available from Papers4you.com [19/06/2006]
Risk glossary (2006) "Modern portfolio theory", Available from http://www.riskglossary.com/link/portfolio_theory.htm [19/06/2006]
About the Author
Copyright 2006 Verena Veneeva. Professional Writer working for http://www.coursework4you.co.uk!
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Lack of Greek Deal Sends EUR Tumbling
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<a href="http://www.forexyard.com/en/market-analysis/lack_of_greek_deal_sends_eur_tumbling-2012-02-07" style="font-size:1.2em">Lack of Greek Deal Sends EUR Tumbling</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Forexyard</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">2 hours ago </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The euro was largely bearish yesterday, after Greece once again failed to come to an agreement with its creditors to restructure its debt.</div>
<a href="http://www.forexpros.com/news/forex-news/forex---euro-finds-support-on-greece-deal-hopes-230012">Forex - Euro finds support on Greece deal hopes</a> - <span style="color:#888888">Forex Pros</span><br>
<a href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=20120205_forex_signals_usd_jpy_eur.htm">Forex Trading and Currency Exchange Rates ? USD/JPY rises as EUR/USD drops</a> - <span style="color:#888888">Best Syndication</span><br>
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Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-07)
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<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/294134/20120207/canadian-dollar-cad-technical-major-currencies-2012-02-07.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-07)</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">International Business Times</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">3 hours ago </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pair has been fluctuating with narrow ranges recently, within the descending short term channel shown on image, while MACD indicator continues to provide a bullish divergence over the four-hour timeframe, and momentum indicators are within oversold ...</div>
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British Pound Sterling: Currency continues advance against EUR, safe haven <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/british-pound-eur-safe-haven-06021355.html" style="font-size:1.2em">British Pound Sterling: Currency continues advance against EUR, safe haven <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">20 hours ago </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The Pound continued its advance against the Euro this morning, but the UK currency declined for a second day versus the US Dollar, as market speculation escalates over the prospect of further quantitative easing from the Bank of England this week.</div>
</div>
Canadian dollar exchange rate (CAD) falls back vs USD as risk aversion takes <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/canadian-dollar-cad-06021354.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian dollar exchange rate (CAD) falls back vs USD as risk aversion takes <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">20 hours ago </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate (USD/CAD) is 0.54% higher at 0.9987. The euro Canadian dollar exchange rate (EUR/CAD) is 0.39% lower at 1.3018, the pound Canadian dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 0.22% higher at 1.5746.</div>
<a href="http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/usd-cad:-canadian-dollar-down-on-greek-concerns,-weaker-oil-prices-113296">USD/CAD: Canadian Dollar Down on Greek Concerns, Weaker Oil Prices</a> - <span style="color:#888888">Forex Pros</span><br>
<a href="http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-articles/2012/02/USDCAD-Daily-Outlook-Feb-7-2012/10802">USD/CAD Daily Outlook Feb. 7, 2012</a> - <span style="color:#888888">DailyForex.com</span><br>
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Canadian dollar exchange rates (CAD) are a big winner following strong Non <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/canadian-dollar-exchange-rate-non-farm-03021348.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian dollar exchange rates (CAD) are a big winner following strong Non <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 3, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Canadian dollar exchange rate: Global markets have been caught by surprise following the release of strong US Non-Farm Payroll data.</div>
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2012 Forecasts: Canadian Dollar To Be Support By QE3 In 2H12
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<a href="http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/special-reports/2012-forecasts:--canadian-dollar-to-be-support-by-qe3-in-2h12-20120203158825/" style="font-size:1.2em">2012 Forecasts: Canadian Dollar To Be Support By QE3 In 2H12</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Action Forex</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 3, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">Canada will by no means escape from the recent global economic turmoil. As an economy heavily reliant on exports, the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the stringent fiscal consolidation to be adopted by the US are expected to hurt Canadian ...</div>
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Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-03)
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<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/292363/20120203/canadian-dollar-cad-technical-major-currencies-2012-02-03.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-03)</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">International Business Times</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 3, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pair has been trading within a narrow range above the 200-days SMA; the pair is having difficulties breaching this support area around the average as see on chart, while price is clearly oversold as seen on Stochastic.</div>
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Canadian dollar exchange rate: CAD finds risk environment unconstructive <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/canadian-dollar-exchange-rate-02021342.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian dollar exchange rate: CAD finds risk environment unconstructive <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 2, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The CAD was not a participant in the overnight push up in risk currencies, with USD/CAD remaining well-entrenched in familiar ranges.</div>
<a href="http://www.forexpros.com/news/forex-news/forex---usd-cad-up-on-jobs-data-229907">Forex - USD/CAD up on jobs data</a> - <span style="color:#888888">Forex Pros</span><br>
<a href="http://www.actionforex.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=158866:mixed-reactions-in-the-us-dollar-to-the-non-farm-payroll&catid=191:daily-forex-technicals">Mixed Reactions in the US Dollar to the Non-Farm Payroll</a> - <span style="color:#888888">Action Forex</span><br>
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Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-02)
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<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/291619/20120202/canadian-dollar-cad-technical-major-currencies-2012-02-02.htm" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Major Currencies (2012-02-02)</a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">International Business Times</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 2, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pivotal support around 0.9965 is still providing the pair with a good support as seen on the provided four-hour chart. The struggle around the middle line of the descending channel that dominated the movements from 1.0285 zones continues fixing RSI ...</div>
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Canadian dollar exchange rate: CAD is cross currency under-performer <b>...</b>
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<a href="http://www.euro-exchangerate.com/canadian-dollar-vs-australian-dollar-01021335.html" style="font-size:1.2em">Canadian dollar exchange rate: CAD is cross currency under-performer <b>...</b></a>
<br> <span style="color:#888888;">Euro Exchange Rate News</span> - <span style="white-space:nowrap">Feb 1, 2012 </span>
<div style="width:80%;">The pound Canadian dollar exchange rate is 0.02% higher at 1.5810, the euro Canadian dollar exchange rate is 0.22% higher at 1.3148, the US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate is 0.5% lower with 1 USD = 0.9971 CAD.</div>
<a href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/11394595/1/usd-cad-susceptible-to-weakness.html">USD-CAD: Susceptible to Weakness</a> - <span style="color:#888888">TheStreet.com</span><br>
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